Of course, even a very close outcome in Ohio won’t be of much national interest unless the presidency hangs in the balance.

“Nobody’s going to care if, in the eight swing states, Obama wins and he doesn’t need Ohio,” Tokaji said. “And if Obama wins Florida, it will probably not be that close in the Electoral College. But in a scenario where [public opinion] polls are systematically off, albeit by small margins but by enough, that makes Ohio most likely to be the tipping-point state.”